A Bay area writer starts to ask Dodgers manager Jim Tracy about his offense. Tracy cuts him off, knowing what's coming.
"You're not impressed," Tracy says, smiling.
Well, uh, no, Jim.
"Which part aren't you impressed by?" Tracy continues.
The proper answer is, "Every part of it, Jim. Your offense stinks!" But the writer responds more evenly, saying, "Well, you're last in pretty much everything."
Last in the National League in runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Last in the majors in homers, trailing even the Tigers, a team drawing rightful comparisons to baseball's legendary standard of incompetence, the 1962 Mets.
"You've shocked me," Tracy tells the writer, feigning indignation. "It's the first time I've heard that question."
Well, Tracy and the Dodgers are going to keep hearing it because they're blowing a historic opportunity. Their pitching staff's 2.82 earned-run average entering the week led the National League by 0.82, or nearly a full run per game. No staff since 1900 has won an ERA title by a margin that wide; the biggest differential belongs to the 1939 Yankees, who prevailed by 0.77. Yet, for all the Dodgers' pitching prowess, they've been unable to seize control of the NL West.
Even a mediocre offense would give the Dodgers an effective, Lennon-McCartney partnership. Their inability to score, however, produces a grating, Lennon-Yoko Ono effect. Tracy and other club officials point to the Dodgers' standing near the top of the division as proof that the team can win in its present form. But the Dodgers' season is likely to go to waste if they fail to make significant additions or coax better performances from within.
The latter hope is growing increasingly unlikely -- first baseman Fred McGriff and center fielder Dave Roberts are slowed by injuries, and left fielder Brian Jordan is pondering season-ending knee surgery.
No team ever has finished last in its league in runs per game and won a World Series, though the '85 Royals came close, finishing 13th in scoring in a 14-team league. Only six teams have finished last in their league in homers and reached the Series. The four most recent examples -- the '59 White Sox, '65 Dodgers and '82 and '87 Cardinals -- were speed-oriented clubs that led their leagues in stolen bases. The 2003 Dodgers rank sixth in the NL in steals, not that it matters much. Teams place a greater emphasis on power in today's game.
"There's no use trying to pick it apart -- it is what it is," Dodgers hitting coach and former major-league slugger Jack Clark says of the team's offense. "There are a lot of teams out there that hit a lot better than us but don't have any pitching. I guarantee you, every single one of them would trade places with us. Every one of them would give up where they're at if they could be where we're at because of pitching and defense."
The Dodgers have won the World Series five times since moving to Los Angeles in 1958. Each of these clubs ranked in the top three in NL pitching. None finished higher than fourth in scoring; the '65 championship team finished eighth in a 10-team league.
Thus, the 2003 team is an extension of the Dodgers' pitching-rich past, from Koufax and Drysdale to Valenzuela to Hershiser. Dodger Stadium remains one of the foremost pitchers parks in the NL, and it would be foolish for the front office to construct a high-powered lineup in an attempt to bludgeon opponents. Indeed, if ever a team was built to win with dominant pitching and dormant hitting, it's these Dodgers.
The problem is, the Dodgers compete with virtually no margin for error, just as they did last season when their pitching and hitting operated at lesser extremes. Injuries could again weaken a rotation that has already lost Darren Dreifort to season-ending knee surgery. And for the second straight year, the Dodgers are playing more one-run games than any team in the league. They're 16-12 in such contests after going 33-15 last season, the best mark in the NL.
"It can be a strain," catcher Paul Lo Duca says. "The pitching staff is obviously our strength. But if we keep struggling with the bats, and they try to make perfect pitches, that's when they get hurt. There has got to be some games when you can give them a cushion, and they don't have to worry about it."
Tracy, though, says the Dodgers are in a stronger position than last season, citing healthier starting pitchers. Kevin Brown is back to his nasty self. Kazuhisa Ishii shows no ill effects from the nasal fracture he suffered from a batted ball last September. Hideo Nomo would be the ace of most other staffs, Odalis Perez is coming off a 15-win season and Andy Ashby is an adequate replacement for Dreifort.
No longer must Tracy overwork his relievers; the Dodgers starters pitch so deep into games that their bullpen is the most rested in the NL -- and the most effective by a wide margin. Closer Eric Gagne isn't the only reason the team's bullpen ERA is under 2.00 while every other NL team's is over 3.00. From setup men Paul Shuey and Paul Quantrill to lefthander Tom Martin to versatile Guillermo Mota, there isn't a weak arm in the bunch.
The Dodgers' other advantage is defense. Never mind that they've committed the fourth most errors in the NL. They've allowed only 15 unearned runs, fewest in the league, and rank No. 1 by a wide margin in defensive efficiency, a statistic that measures the percentage of balls in play that are turned into outs. The large foul territory in front of both dugouts at Dodger Stadium helps inflate the Dodgers' efficiency rating, but their pitchers also rank first in ground ball percentage, increasing chances for the infielders. That's what the team wants because third baseman Adrian Beltre, shortstop Cesar Izturis and platoon second baseman Alex Cora are Gold Glove-caliber defenders.
Opponents, mindful of the Dodgers' stinginess, alter their offensive strategy accordingly.
"You know that in all likelihood there aren't going to be a lot of runs scored," Diamondbacks general manager Joe Garagiola Jr. says. "You have to approach it that way, move runners over, bunt early in the game."
Giants manager Felipe Alou concurs, but the Dodgers put him in a bind -- if he bunts in the first inning, he's inviting an intentional walk to Barry Bonds.
Put it all together, and the Dodgers just need to hit a little, not a lot. They've held their opponents to three runs or fewer in 72 percent of their games, and they're 42-15 when keeping the score at that level. But they're below average -- well below average -- at every offensive position but catcher. Beltre, Izturis and Cora have sub-.290 on-base percentages. McGriff, leadoff man Roberts and Shawn Green are sub-.325. No Dodgers regular ranks among the top 40 in the NL in slugging percentage.
The catcher, Lo Duca, can do only so much.
First game of three at San Francisco's Pacific Bell Park. Shut out for eight innings by Kirk Rueter and the Giants bullpen, the Dodgers rally to tie the score with two unearned runs in the ninth. The only hit in the inning is an infield single by Beltre. That's enough offense for one night. The Giants win in 11 innings, 3-2.
Second of three at Pac Bell. The Dodgers score one run off Jason Schmidt, and again it is unearned. Green delivers the lone RBI with a bases-loaded sacrifice fly. The ball is barely hit deep enough for Izturis to score -- a player with lesser speed would not have made it. The Giants win, 2-1.
Third game. The Dodgers erupt for 16 hits, their second highest total of the season, and rally behind Nomo for a 6-0 victory. Maybe Damian Moss was an easier mark than Rueter and Schmidt. Maybe pitcher-friendly Pac Bell contributed to the Dodgers' lack of offense. Then again, maybe no excuse is valid. The Dodgers have scored only 29 runs in three of the most hitter-friendly parks in the NL -- Colorado's Coors Field, Arizona's Bank One Ballpark and Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park.
"It's going to change," Green says. "It's a long season. It's how you finish that matters."
Green can't look at it any other way -- he is batting .252 with eight homers after hitting .291 and averaging 45 homers the past two seasons. Tracy says it's unfair to assume the notoriously streaky Green will slump all season, but Green needs more protection from a cast incapable of delivering it. Club officials envision the team scratching out enough runs to stay with the Giants and Diamondbacks, who have their own problems. But when a team is on pace to outpitch its opponents by a record margin, it needs to max out.
McGriff, who turns 40 in October, was the only significant offensive addition to a club that won 92 games last season despite finishing next to last in the NL in on-base percentage. The Dodgers are reluctant to exceed the $117 million luxury tax threshold, and club officials say their payroll is close to that level. The team's sale negotiations represent another possible trade hindrance. But the Dodgers, needing more than one bat, will regret it if they blow this chance.
One rival executive suggests the Dodgers should acquire not only third baseman Mike Lowell from the Marlins but also second baseman Luis Castillo, upgrading offensively while remaining strong defensively at both positions. However, the team's priority could shift to left field if Jordan is lost for the season. The Blue Jays' Shannon Stewart and the Padres' Rondell White are available. So is the Orioles' Jeff Conine, who mostly plays first base but can fill in at third and left. Royals center fielder Carlos Beltran is a more remote option; he would unseat Roberts, the Dodgers' only leadoff man. Still, the Dodgers should consider displacing anyone but Lo Duca and Green.
"They have some resources in the minor leagues now," says a scout with knowledge of the Dodgers' farm system. "They could make a deal, no question, if they wanted to move one of their pitching prospects."
It's really not that complicated. Mediocrity is all the Dodgers need out of their offense. Mediocrity would make them the team to beat in the National League.
http://www.sportingnews.com/voices/ken_rosenthal/20030703a.html
"You're not impressed," Tracy says, smiling.
Well, uh, no, Jim.
"Which part aren't you impressed by?" Tracy continues.
The proper answer is, "Every part of it, Jim. Your offense stinks!" But the writer responds more evenly, saying, "Well, you're last in pretty much everything."
Last in the National League in runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Last in the majors in homers, trailing even the Tigers, a team drawing rightful comparisons to baseball's legendary standard of incompetence, the 1962 Mets.
"You've shocked me," Tracy tells the writer, feigning indignation. "It's the first time I've heard that question."
Well, Tracy and the Dodgers are going to keep hearing it because they're blowing a historic opportunity. Their pitching staff's 2.82 earned-run average entering the week led the National League by 0.82, or nearly a full run per game. No staff since 1900 has won an ERA title by a margin that wide; the biggest differential belongs to the 1939 Yankees, who prevailed by 0.77. Yet, for all the Dodgers' pitching prowess, they've been unable to seize control of the NL West.
Even a mediocre offense would give the Dodgers an effective, Lennon-McCartney partnership. Their inability to score, however, produces a grating, Lennon-Yoko Ono effect. Tracy and other club officials point to the Dodgers' standing near the top of the division as proof that the team can win in its present form. But the Dodgers' season is likely to go to waste if they fail to make significant additions or coax better performances from within.
The latter hope is growing increasingly unlikely -- first baseman Fred McGriff and center fielder Dave Roberts are slowed by injuries, and left fielder Brian Jordan is pondering season-ending knee surgery.
No team ever has finished last in its league in runs per game and won a World Series, though the '85 Royals came close, finishing 13th in scoring in a 14-team league. Only six teams have finished last in their league in homers and reached the Series. The four most recent examples -- the '59 White Sox, '65 Dodgers and '82 and '87 Cardinals -- were speed-oriented clubs that led their leagues in stolen bases. The 2003 Dodgers rank sixth in the NL in steals, not that it matters much. Teams place a greater emphasis on power in today's game.
"There's no use trying to pick it apart -- it is what it is," Dodgers hitting coach and former major-league slugger Jack Clark says of the team's offense. "There are a lot of teams out there that hit a lot better than us but don't have any pitching. I guarantee you, every single one of them would trade places with us. Every one of them would give up where they're at if they could be where we're at because of pitching and defense."
The Dodgers have won the World Series five times since moving to Los Angeles in 1958. Each of these clubs ranked in the top three in NL pitching. None finished higher than fourth in scoring; the '65 championship team finished eighth in a 10-team league.
Thus, the 2003 team is an extension of the Dodgers' pitching-rich past, from Koufax and Drysdale to Valenzuela to Hershiser. Dodger Stadium remains one of the foremost pitchers parks in the NL, and it would be foolish for the front office to construct a high-powered lineup in an attempt to bludgeon opponents. Indeed, if ever a team was built to win with dominant pitching and dormant hitting, it's these Dodgers.
The problem is, the Dodgers compete with virtually no margin for error, just as they did last season when their pitching and hitting operated at lesser extremes. Injuries could again weaken a rotation that has already lost Darren Dreifort to season-ending knee surgery. And for the second straight year, the Dodgers are playing more one-run games than any team in the league. They're 16-12 in such contests after going 33-15 last season, the best mark in the NL.
"It can be a strain," catcher Paul Lo Duca says. "The pitching staff is obviously our strength. But if we keep struggling with the bats, and they try to make perfect pitches, that's when they get hurt. There has got to be some games when you can give them a cushion, and they don't have to worry about it."
Tracy, though, says the Dodgers are in a stronger position than last season, citing healthier starting pitchers. Kevin Brown is back to his nasty self. Kazuhisa Ishii shows no ill effects from the nasal fracture he suffered from a batted ball last September. Hideo Nomo would be the ace of most other staffs, Odalis Perez is coming off a 15-win season and Andy Ashby is an adequate replacement for Dreifort.
No longer must Tracy overwork his relievers; the Dodgers starters pitch so deep into games that their bullpen is the most rested in the NL -- and the most effective by a wide margin. Closer Eric Gagne isn't the only reason the team's bullpen ERA is under 2.00 while every other NL team's is over 3.00. From setup men Paul Shuey and Paul Quantrill to lefthander Tom Martin to versatile Guillermo Mota, there isn't a weak arm in the bunch.
The Dodgers' other advantage is defense. Never mind that they've committed the fourth most errors in the NL. They've allowed only 15 unearned runs, fewest in the league, and rank No. 1 by a wide margin in defensive efficiency, a statistic that measures the percentage of balls in play that are turned into outs. The large foul territory in front of both dugouts at Dodger Stadium helps inflate the Dodgers' efficiency rating, but their pitchers also rank first in ground ball percentage, increasing chances for the infielders. That's what the team wants because third baseman Adrian Beltre, shortstop Cesar Izturis and platoon second baseman Alex Cora are Gold Glove-caliber defenders.
Opponents, mindful of the Dodgers' stinginess, alter their offensive strategy accordingly.
"You know that in all likelihood there aren't going to be a lot of runs scored," Diamondbacks general manager Joe Garagiola Jr. says. "You have to approach it that way, move runners over, bunt early in the game."
Giants manager Felipe Alou concurs, but the Dodgers put him in a bind -- if he bunts in the first inning, he's inviting an intentional walk to Barry Bonds.
Put it all together, and the Dodgers just need to hit a little, not a lot. They've held their opponents to three runs or fewer in 72 percent of their games, and they're 42-15 when keeping the score at that level. But they're below average -- well below average -- at every offensive position but catcher. Beltre, Izturis and Cora have sub-.290 on-base percentages. McGriff, leadoff man Roberts and Shawn Green are sub-.325. No Dodgers regular ranks among the top 40 in the NL in slugging percentage.
The catcher, Lo Duca, can do only so much.
First game of three at San Francisco's Pacific Bell Park. Shut out for eight innings by Kirk Rueter and the Giants bullpen, the Dodgers rally to tie the score with two unearned runs in the ninth. The only hit in the inning is an infield single by Beltre. That's enough offense for one night. The Giants win in 11 innings, 3-2.
Second of three at Pac Bell. The Dodgers score one run off Jason Schmidt, and again it is unearned. Green delivers the lone RBI with a bases-loaded sacrifice fly. The ball is barely hit deep enough for Izturis to score -- a player with lesser speed would not have made it. The Giants win, 2-1.
Third game. The Dodgers erupt for 16 hits, their second highest total of the season, and rally behind Nomo for a 6-0 victory. Maybe Damian Moss was an easier mark than Rueter and Schmidt. Maybe pitcher-friendly Pac Bell contributed to the Dodgers' lack of offense. Then again, maybe no excuse is valid. The Dodgers have scored only 29 runs in three of the most hitter-friendly parks in the NL -- Colorado's Coors Field, Arizona's Bank One Ballpark and Cincinnati's Great American Ball Park.
"It's going to change," Green says. "It's a long season. It's how you finish that matters."
Green can't look at it any other way -- he is batting .252 with eight homers after hitting .291 and averaging 45 homers the past two seasons. Tracy says it's unfair to assume the notoriously streaky Green will slump all season, but Green needs more protection from a cast incapable of delivering it. Club officials envision the team scratching out enough runs to stay with the Giants and Diamondbacks, who have their own problems. But when a team is on pace to outpitch its opponents by a record margin, it needs to max out.
McGriff, who turns 40 in October, was the only significant offensive addition to a club that won 92 games last season despite finishing next to last in the NL in on-base percentage. The Dodgers are reluctant to exceed the $117 million luxury tax threshold, and club officials say their payroll is close to that level. The team's sale negotiations represent another possible trade hindrance. But the Dodgers, needing more than one bat, will regret it if they blow this chance.
One rival executive suggests the Dodgers should acquire not only third baseman Mike Lowell from the Marlins but also second baseman Luis Castillo, upgrading offensively while remaining strong defensively at both positions. However, the team's priority could shift to left field if Jordan is lost for the season. The Blue Jays' Shannon Stewart and the Padres' Rondell White are available. So is the Orioles' Jeff Conine, who mostly plays first base but can fill in at third and left. Royals center fielder Carlos Beltran is a more remote option; he would unseat Roberts, the Dodgers' only leadoff man. Still, the Dodgers should consider displacing anyone but Lo Duca and Green.
"They have some resources in the minor leagues now," says a scout with knowledge of the Dodgers' farm system. "They could make a deal, no question, if they wanted to move one of their pitching prospects."
It's really not that complicated. Mediocrity is all the Dodgers need out of their offense. Mediocrity would make them the team to beat in the National League.
http://www.sportingnews.com/voices/ken_rosenthal/20030703a.html
